On January 22nd 2026, the Academy of Motion Picture Arts and Sciences will finally bring down its initial judgment on the films that graced our screens the year before, and at the risk of ascribing far too much value to the same institution that gave Emerald Fennell an award for screenwriting and re-legitimized Robert Downey Jr. as a ravenous acting force just long enough for him to feel comfortable sliding back into the abyss of watered-down IP content, we film nerds just can’t help but treat this season like the Super Bowl with a lower dose of testosterone and just as much pointless screaming. So, as we inch our way closer to the day that a new crop of creatives is christened with Oscar gold, the day must first come for our initial round of disappointing snubs and unexpected acknowledgments.
As with every award season on the cusp of nomination morning, the landscape has, by now, begun to take shape with a few heavyweights dominating certain categories—and a select few of them already seemingly destined to absolutely steamroll their respective competitions—alongside a few scrappy underdogs staking their claim to usurp those final few slots from some of the more expected but less solidified participants. With AMPAS’s increasingly international votership makeup, the ceremony is also looking to be far more diverse than the years of old, with more than a small share of non-English titles proving themselves to be formidable offerings desperately needed to shake this race awake.
Looking at every category, here are our predictions of how we think the nominations will appear just moments before soggy breakfast cereal makes first contact with the unsuspecting TV screen:
Picture:
Some years, the Best Picture Oscar race is basically cut-and-dried, and this year’s race looks to be one of those instances. Essentially, it’s “One Battle After Another”’s award to lose. While Paul Thomas Anderson’s latest may not even wind up receiving the most nominations of the year—“Sinners,” the obvious runner-up, seems poised to potentially bust the all-time nominations ceiling—it looks to finally be Anderson’s year for recognition after so many close calls, with the rest of the usual suspects just tagging along for the ride. The biggest question mark is the final slot, where there remains room for one straggler that has appeared in some precursor ceremonies and missed in others. Several films hold this position, but “Train Dreams” seems likeliest to make it to the station by the skin of its teeth.
Predictions:
- One Battle After Another
- Sinners
- Hamnet
- Marty Supreme
- Frankenstein
- Sentimental Value
- The Secret Agent
- Bugonia
- It Was Just an Accident
- Train Dreams
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Director:
Once again, this is Anderson’s award without question. The only thing left to wonder is who will round out the lineup, as just like Best Picture, there are a few names boxing it out for the final slots after the guarantees of PTA, Coogler, and Chloe Zhao. Joachim Trier and Josh Safdie seem safe, while Jafar Panahi, who should be in winning contention, has somehow slipped from his comfortable placement to fight alongside Guillermo del Toro (for his worst film; go figure) for the chance of that classic Directors’ branch upset that this category is known for tossing in virtually every year. Let’s hope this year’s surprise is more of the Pawlikowski for “Cold War” variety than the Mangold for “A Complete Unknown” class.
Predictions:
- Paul Thomas Anderson (One Battle After Another)
- Ryan Coogler (Sinners)
- Chloe Zhao (Hamnet)
- Joachim Trier (Sentimental Value)
- Josh Safdie (Marty Supreme)
Actor:
Another category that seems relatively locked, Timothée Chalamet is cleaning house for his lead role in “Marty Supreme,” while Leonardo DiCaprio, Michael B. Jordan, and Wagner Moura seem locked for some well-earned love. Again, all that remains is to guess the final straggler: will it be Ethan Hawke, Jesse Plemons, Joel Edgerton, or will Dwayne Johnson appear out of nowhere with the steel chair? Many certainties and many more open variables float about, but since Plemons seems to be in the most locked-in Best Picture contender among these remaining contenders, he might just be the best bet.
Predictions:
- Timothée Chalamet (Marty Supreme)
- Leonardo DiCaprio (One Battle After Another)
- Michael B. Jordan (Sinners)
- Wagner Moura (The Secret Agent)
- Jesse Plemons (Bugonia)
Actress:
In yet another instance of “everyone else is just lucky to get invited,” Jessie Buckley is the unequivocal sweeper in the Best Actress category for her emotionally draining turn in “Hamnet,” so all that remains is sussing out her distant competition. Rose Byrne has thankfully solidified her traction with a performance that should be closer to the gold, while Renate Reinsve is relatively secure, and Emma Stone has reluctantly RSVP’d for her annual placement in the lineup.
Chase Infiniti seems to be joining in on One Nomination After Another, and while her performance certainly deserves all of its praise in isolation, classifying it as a “lead” seems like a fairly egregious case of category fraud that leaves the likes of Jennifer Lawrence in “Die My Love” and Amanda Seyfried in the criminally underpraised “The Testament of Ann Lee” clawing for more centralized attention they deserve, (plus Kate Hudson in “Song Sung Blue” fighting for the slot she probably doesn’t).
Predictions:
- Jessie Buckley (Hamnet)
- Rose Byrne (If I Had Legs I’d Kick You)
- Renate Reinsve (Sentimental Value)
- Emma Stone (Bugonia)
- Chase Infiniti (One Battle After Another)
Supporting Actor:
Finally, some tighter competition for the gold! Stellan Skarsgård, Sean Penn, and Benicio del Toro are all duking it out for top honours, with the longtime supporting icon from Sweden holding much audience fervour in the face of some minor category fraud. Jacob Elordi has been a consistent presence for “Frankenstein” (I mean… sure), and Paul Mescal looks just about ready to secure his second Oscar nod, this time for playing the most famous writer in human history. Unlike the prior categories, there appear to be virtually no contenders nipping at the heels of our set five, but an upset is always possible, perhaps in the form of Delroy Lindo or Miles Caton in “Sinners” (or, God forbid, Adam Sandler in “Jay Kelly”).
Predictions:
- Stellan Skarsgård (Sentimental Value)
- Sean Penn (One Battle After Another)
- Benicio del Toro (One Battle After Another)
- Paul Mescal (Hamnet)
- Jacob Elordi (Frankenstein)
Supporting Actress:
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The supporting categories seem primed for bloody battle, as no clear frontrunner has emerged among the ladies. Amy Madigan has amassed some decent momentum for “Weapons,” but perhaps the Oscars and their precursors are reticent to give an acting prize to a rather goofy horror performance in a film that otherwise has no real traction (let’s cool it with the Best Picture predictions, shall we?).
Teyana Taylor, then, seems the next logical option in her limited but film-defining turn in the movie set to take it all, while the “Sentimental Value” gals are potentially poised to bring back a tradition from 2018 to 2023 where at least one film would score double supporting nominations. What remains to be seen is which heavyweight contending film will secure an extra nomination here—“Sinners” with Wunmi Mosaku, or “Marty Supreme” with Odessa A’zion—or even if the Academy will bite and charitably throw Ariana Grande another bone for a far less commendable “Wicked” performance than her last.
Predictions:
- Teyana Taylor (One Battle After Another)
- Amy Madigan (Weapons)
- Inga Ibsdotter Lilleaas (Sentimental Value)
- Wunmi Mosaku (Sinners)
- Elle Fanning (Sentimental Value)
Original Screenplay:
For one of the only categories where “One Battle After Another” is ineligible, it looks like Ryan Coogler is set to get his moment onstage with an award for his “Sinners” screenplay. In a just world, he’d be tied with Jafar Panahi, who equally deserves the praise, and perhaps deserves even more the platform to make a speech about what his film represents in this current climate of repression and political upheaval in his native Iran. Otherwise, Josh Safdie and Joachim Trier look to secure nominations alongside their respective writing partners Ronald Bronstein and Eskil Vogt, while the fifth slot could go to any number of contenders (either category-specific one-off nods or a leftover from the Best Picture lineup).
Predictions:
- Sinners
- It Was Just An Accident
- Sentimental Value
- Marty Supreme
- Blue Moon
Adapted Screenplay:
PTA will get a nice leg workout running up and down the Oscar stage come March 15th, as he’s all but guaranteed yet another award in his loose adaptation of Thomas Pynchon’s “Vineland.” On the outskirts, fellow mainstays “Hamnet” (co-written by the book’s own author Maggie O’Farrell), “Frankenstein”, and “Bugonia” look fairly safe. For the last slot, “Train Dreams” appears to be another safe bet, depending on whether it crosses that Best Picture threshold, though “No Other Choice” has the sneaking possibility of finding its way in (which would be nice, instead of a lifeless copy-paste of Mary Shelley, however unlikely).
Predictions:
- One Battle After Another
- Hamnet
- Frankenstein
- Bugonia
- Train Dreams
International Feature:
Now, for the most interesting Oscar category featuring the highest-quality crop of contenders each year, International Feature has held increasing significance as the Academy voter demographics have themselves begun to skew more global. With three contenders all but locked for Best Picture—”It Was Just An Accident” (France), “Sentimental Value” (Norway), and “The Secret Agent” (Brazil)—their placement here is equally set in stone.
“Sirāt” (Spain) made it onto a surprising number of the Academy’s shortlists, so its presence may be a safe bet, as is that of “No Other Choice,” but if there’s one certainty in this category, it’s that one complete curveball is likely to shuffle its way in unsuspectingly like a yak in the classroom over the seeming surefires. Maybe that spot goes to “Belén” (Argentina). Also, with no less than three shortlisted submissions detailing different aspects of the Palestinian struggle under oppression—”The Voice of Hind Rajab” (Tunisia), “All That’s Left of You” (Jordan) and, of course, “Palestine 36” (Palestine)—we’ll see soon enough whether the Academy is ready to platform confrontations of these humanitarian atrocities to this degree after last year’s “No Other Land.”
Predictions:
- The Secret Agent (Brazil)
- It Was Just An Accident (France)
- Sentimental Value (Norway)
- Sirāt (Spain)
- The Voice of Hind Rajab (Tunisia)
Documentary:
One famous category pattern with Best Documentary is the unexplainable shunning of the obvious frontrunner—a fate that, thankfully, eluded the aforementioned “No Other Land” last year. Such a reality would tempt us to do the same, except there doesn’t seem to be a clear, “Won’t You Be My Neighbor?” caliber snubbable pick this year. Perhaps “The Perfect Neighbor” or “2000 Meters to Andriikva,” from previous category winner Mstyslav Chernov, might qualify. Still, convenience points toward the acclaimed but beefy “My Undesirable Friends: Part 1 – Last Air in Moscow,” largely on the assumption that Academy members would be unwilling to make time for a 324-minute documentary about corruption in Russia, a subject that has, in a roundabout way, defined two of the past three winners.
Predictions:
- The Perfect Neighbor
- Cover-Up
- Mr. Nobody Against Putin
- Apocalypse in the Tropics
- The Alabama Solution
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Score:
Jonny Greenwood appears to be just about the only member of the “One Battle” camp not riding an overdue arc towards the gold statue, which is even odder given that the seeming sweeper in this category is someone who’s already won off both of his previous nominations. But Ludwig Göransson’s work on “Sinners” is undeniable both in quality and relevance to the film itself, and Greenwood is still rather safe to make the top five. Rounding things out are the usual suspects of Picture mainstays, like “Hamnet” and “Marty Supreme,” while the final slot remains for a surprise. Another “Sirāt” shortlist appearance sparks some hope for “Challengers” electronic music redemption, but “Train Dreams” certainly meets the criteria for sweeping, evocative orchestration to which the music branch takes like catnip.
Predictions:
- Sinners
- One Battle After Another
- Marty Supreme
- Hamnet
- Train Dreams
Related Read: Golden Globe Awards 2026 Winners: Complete List of Film, TV, and Podcast Winners
Original Song:
…It’s “Golden.” Sorry to kill the suspense, but a song that A) bears relevance within the film beyond the end credits, and B) has become a cultural phenomenon outside the film, is basically handed the Oscar months before the ceremony has started. Another guarantee is the presence of Diane Warren writing a song for some film you’ve never heard of or cared about, and since this year’s offering comes from a documentary about Warren herself doing just that, there’s no reason to suspect a break in tradition.
In other cases, the presence of a famous performer/writer tends to be an easy sell, so Nick Cave’s work on “Train Dreams” and Billy Idol’s contribution to his own documentary are further safe bets. And of course, for number five, we can’t forget one of the two shameless additions to the “Wicked” soundtrack to make it eligible for this category.
Predictions:
- “Golden” (KPop Demon Hunters)
- “Dear Me” (Diane Warren: Restless)
- “Train Dreams” (Train Dreams)
- “Dying to Live” (Billy Idol Should Be Dead)
- “No Place Like Home” (… or the other one; who cares, really?) (Wicked: For Good)
Animated Feature:
Some years have a boundless treasure trove of animated films—those suited to children and adults alike—from which the Academy is forced to make some tough decisions in whittling down to just five. Some years have the opposite problem, wherein the Academy is left with so few viable options that aren’t criminally under-marketed independent films, leaving them at a loss to find a full lineup of five to round out a category they already latently dismiss as children’s fare.
This year looks to be closer to the latter situation, with “KPop Demon Hunters” way ahead of the pack by mere virtue of having been part of a cultural moment. Disney and Pixar will likely find their annual positions safe, and France has come to the table with two potential contenders (including “Little Amélie,” which should be winning), so the prospects look, if not exciting, at least secure.
Predictions:
- KPop Demon Hunters
- Zootopia 2
- Elio
- Little Amélie or the Character of Rain
- Arco
Casting:
Best Casting is a compelling category in that its first-time status means there’s zero precedent for us to make our predictions. All we have to go on is the existing shortlist, which indicates that Best Picture mainstays are brushing up against films with compelling casting narratives (i.e., “Sirāt” with its troupe of real-life ravers). With no real precursors to go by, we can probably assume that the films with heavy presences in the individual acting categories will be likely to appear here as a more collective representation, bringing us once more to the usual suspects.
Predictions:
- One Battle After Another
- Sinners
- Marty Supreme
- Hamnet
- Sentimental Value
Cinematography:
A few minor surprises found their way onto the Cinematography shortlist—“Song Sung Blue,” “Die My Love,” “Sound of Falling,” “Sirāt”—but they seem poised to remain shortlist wonders in the face of the flashier offerings from more prominent contenders. The usual top three seem inevitable, as does the presence of the only black-and-white contender in the bunch (which, this year, manages rather unexpectedly to be “Nouvelle Vague”). With any luck, we can avoid another “Wicked” jumpscare, but a “Frankenstein” appearance, with its undeniably grandiose lensing across meticulous sets, feels just as likely as the top contenders.
Predictions:
- One Battle After Another
- Sinners
- Hamnet
- Nouvelle Vague
- Frankenstein
Editing:
Oddly enough, there is no shortlist announcement for Best Editing, which leaves us largely in a guessing position to assume the big names will be brushing up against more diverse and category-specific contenders. So while the beefy and propulsive “One Battle” and “Marty Supreme” seem locked, and heavyweights “Sinners” and “Hamnet” gain a spot apiece for general pacing management, we can probably add “F1” to the mix… You know, because cars. This is another category where “It Was Just An Accident” and “No Other Choice” have sadly fallen to the wayside in the midst of lost momentum, but here’s hoping they can make a comeback.
Predictions:
- One Battle After Another
- Sinners
- F1
- Marty Supreme
- Hamnet
Costume Design:
Another category with no shortlist, Costume Design is generally rather predictable if there are any musicals or period pieces in the mix. Now “The Testament of Ann Lee” falls under both, which is why this may be the only category where the film has a decent shot at making an appearance. But as far as winning contenders go, the reigning champions on the “Wicked” team have a solid chance of defending their title against the new contender “Frankenstein,” while “Hamnet” and “Sinners” all meet the period piece criteria, with the possibility of a “Marty Supreme” upset.
Predictions:
- Frankenstein
- Wicked: For Good
- The Testament of Ann Lee
- Sinners
- Hamnet
Production Design:
The expectations for Production Design basically align with its costuming counterpart. Period pieces, musicals, and science fiction generally hold dominion here, which is why “Frankenstein” and “Wicked: For Good” look primed to duke it out again while “Sinners” and “Hamnet” watch from the sidelines. This time, a “Marty Supreme” appearance seems more readily predictable than an “Ann Lee” upset, as its recreation of ‘50s New York feels more overtly laudable by Academy standards than a few isolated cabins in New York during the B.C. (Before Cabs) era.
Predictions:
- Frankenstein
- Wicked: For Good
- Sinners
- Hamnet
- Marty Supreme
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Sound:
As for the category formerly split between Sound Editing and Sound Mixing, the shortlist once more narrows our field to figure out the advancing prospects. “Cars go vroom vroom” feels like precedent enough to lob this trophy over to “F1,” while “One Battle” and “Sinners” retain heavyweight placement alongside action contender “Avatar: Fire and Ash” and unexpected shortlist underdog “Sirāt.” (Seriously, if any category requires some “Sirāt” attention outside International Feature, it’s this one). However, don’t be shocked if the promptly forgotten “Springsteen: Deliver Me From Nowhere” pulls out a nod based on its status as a music-based biopic.
Predictions:
- F1
- One Battle After Another
- Sinners
- Avatar: Fire and Ash
- Springsteen: Deliver Me From Nowhere
Makeup and Hairstyling:
Makeup and Hairstyling, like most of these categories, has its own set of expected appearances: the transformative biopic, the science-fiction film, the occasional horror film, and just about anything that makes the lead actor look significantly different from their usual chiseled self. That’s why we can expect “The Smashing Machine” to finally make an appearance here if nowhere else, while “Frankenstein” seems poised to take the award.
Once more, “Wicked” is a real contender (because greenface is yet to be considered a hate crime), while “Sinners” and “One Battle” hold their requisite “we need to give these films as many nominations as possible” status—with a few earned sequences of facial disfigurement, in all fairness.
Predictions:
- Frankenstein
- The Smashing Machine
- Wicked: For Good
- One Battle After Another
- Sinners
Visual Effects:
Looks as though it’s time to finally throw “Avatar” a bone. If James Cameron’s latest Pandoran retreat (retread) has lost the momentum to earn him his usual Best Picture slot, at least he can take solace in the fact that the VFX trophy basically has “Fire and Ash” carved onto its plaque as we speak. As for distant competitors, this is just about the only place where Hollywood blockbusters have a real chance at recognition, making the odds look good enough for “Superman” and… “Tron: Ares,” I guess? Since there have to be some real contenders in the mix, though, “Sinners” and “Frankenstein” are likely to cameo here once more.
Predictions:
- Avatar: Fire and Ash
- Sinners
- Frankenstein
- Superman
- Tron: Ares
Live Action Short Film:
Full disclosure: the final three categories are always a wild guessing game for anyone not intimately acquainted with the specific short films on the docket, so much of what will be predicted here will be even more speculative than every category above. (Thank God for the shortlist…) One good indication of a potential nomination (and win), though, is the (often shameless) presence of somebody famous that Academy members would recognize beyond their appearance in the short in question.
For Live Action—the category most conducive to famous names—that leaves us with “A Friend of Dorothy” (starring Miriam Margolyes) and “Two People Exchanging Saliva” (Vicky Krieps and Zar Amir Ebrahimi appear). Additionally, social issues are a good indicator of Academy attention, in just about all three of these categories, so films like “Ado” (about a school shooting) and “Rock, Paper, Scissors” (about a real-life makeshift hospital) look like viable options.
Predictions:
- A Friend of Dorothy
- Two People Exchanging Saliva
- Ado
- The Boy With White Skin
- Rock, Paper, Scissors
Documentary Short Film:
For Documentary Short, famous names are even harder to come by, so the central issue is usually the drawing point: you’re likely to get at least two films about a life-threatening situation, one lighter story of familial and/or social perseverance, and, if he’s made anything, a film by Ben Proudfoot. This year, school shootings (“All the Empty Rooms”), abortion (“The Devil Is Busy”), the War in Ukraine (“Armed Only With A Camera”), and even the LA wildfires of last year (“All the Walls Came Down”) make appearances on the shortlist, making their harrowing representation in the final lineup a safe assumption alongside a story of rehabilitation redemption in “Classroom 4.”
Predictions:
- All the Empty Rooms
- Armed Only With a Camera
- The Devil Is Busy
- All the Walls Came Down
- Classroom 4
Animated Short Film:
For Animated Shorts, big names are once more scant, so we are left to whittle the shortlist down based primarily on any attention these films may have gotten at festivals or their chosen subject matter. Again, serious topics tend to brush up against more palatable, family-friendly fare in this section. Since “Éiru” has the stamp of Cartoon Saloon, it seems like a safe enough bet to appear and even win, where all their feature-length productions have come just short of the gold, while “The Girl Who Cried Pearls” comes courtesy of the National Film Board of Canada (one of this category’s most frequent nominees).
With two different bear-themed films in contention, “Snow Bear” might have the edge over “Forevergreen” due to the charm of its traditional, 2D animation style, while “Playing God” feels reminiscent in its existential tinge to last year’s sombre nominee “Wander to Wonder.” And having premiered at last year’s Berlinale, “Butterfly” also has the credentials to secure a spot in this last lineup.
Predictions:
- Éiru
- The Girl Who Cried Pearls
- Playing God
- Snow Bear
- Butterfly
